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A Community in Peril
Leon County and Tallahassee residents believe that they are unprepared for a major hurricane. A high percentage do not have hurricane plans, as advocated by emergency management officials as well as NOAA.. This study shows a disparity in race, education and income in perceptions of preparedness. Minority residents, as a whole, are less likely to show confidence that this area is prepared for a major storm, and are less likely to have hurricane plans in the event of disaster.
Six wide-ranging recommendations, including changes in the operations and facilities of emergency management, are made in this study.
I would like to thank my graduate research class students at Florida A&M University and the fellow members of the Federal Transportation Agency Florida Stormwater Preparedness grant committee, chaired by Prof. K. Wilder. The committee has interviewed a wide range of people, at length, across the state, and I have been able to travel to collect information from national authorities.
Michael E. Abrams, Ph.D.
Professor of Journalism
Florida A&M University
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With a record 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes this past year in the Atlantic basin, and the prediction of large numbers of such future natural disasters, a higher stage of community preparedness is essential for the safety of residents and prevention of property loss in any community in coastal areas of the United States. Records show that in 154 years of record keeping, 2005 set new marks for numbers of hurricanes as well as intensity of hurricanes hitting the United States.
Florida experienced unprecedented back-to-back hurricane seasons. In 2005, Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma victimized the state. In 2004, Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne slammed into Florida, causing deaths, great damage and hardship, much still not remedied.
An impending weather phenomenon of “La Nina,” announced at the American Meteorological Society’s annual conference (Atlanta, Jan. 29-Feb. 2) leads to the possibility that the coming year’s storms will match last year’s in number, if not intensity. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration administrator Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson has pointed out that the La Nina phenomenon is associated with increasing numbers of hurricanes (discussion and interview with writer at AMS conference). NOAA will issue a report predicting the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in May.
Battle Against Hurricanes
The battle against hurricanes is won in the “off season” according to Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center. Official hurricane season begins on June 1. Last year saw rare storms after the “official end” of the season Nov. 30, with Hurricane Epsilon on Dec. 5 and Zeta formed at the end of December. Mayfield was interviewed for this report, along with Johnson.
The cost of recovery from Hurricane Katrina alone is estimated as high as $2 billion a day or “about 10 times the amount the United States is spending on military in Iraq” according to Mark Trumbull, writing in The Christian Science Monitor (Sept. 14, 2005). It is estimated that 1300-1400 people died in the storm or in its aftermath.
Some 150,000 homes were flooded, and 40 percent of them had no flood insurance, he wrote. Total economic losses have been estimated at $125 billion or more according to Risk Management Solutions, a Newark, N.J. Firm. Kathleen Pender, The San Francisco Chronicle (Sept. 27, 2005).
“It is not a matter of if, but when,” according to Leon County Emergency Management Director Richard Smith, speaking about the possibility of another Katrina-type storm approaching the Gulf Coast in the St. Marks area or nearby. It has been 20 years since residents witnessed Hurricane Kate, which made landfall over northwest Florida on Nov. 22, 1985 as a Category Two storm.
The storm winds, fortunately, rapidly declined from 120 mph to 95 mph when Kate hit Mexico Beach. However, many residents in Leon and Gadsden Counties remember extensive damage to their homes from falling trees, wind and tornado damage, and lack of electricity, in some cases, for weeks. Five people were killed in Florida. The Red Cross estimated damage at $300 million in 1985 dollars, or $532.4 million in 2005 dollars. http://www.tallytown.com/redcross/kate.htm
Leon County Has Much to Lose
Leon County has much more to lose in human life and in property than it did in 1985.
From 1985 to 2004, the population of Leon County Florida has soared 55 percent from 166,421 to 258,825. Coastal Wakulla County rose from 12,352 to 25,637, doubling in size, while Florida’s population rose dramatically from 11,272, 332 to 17,312,570. http://www.21stcenturycouncil.net/qol/05DemographicsUpdate.pdf
Value of assessed property in Florida has risen from $428 billion in 1985 to more than $1.9 trillion. http://sun6.dms.state.fl.us/dor/property/justval.html
In Leon County, Department of Revenue figures show a just property value of $5.21 billion for 1985, as compared with $21.3 billion twenty years later, in 2005. This includes homes and land, and all of the buildings, including universities and state buildings.
In 1992 a National Weather Service study of coastal areas from Texas to Maine, showed that 85 percent of the 45 million residents had never experienced a direct hit from a major hurricane. This study was done seven years after Hurricane Kate hit the area. The popularity of coastal areas for residential homes has not declined since then, especially along the Big Bend of Florida.
Indeed, many of the people who now live in the Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla, and Franklin county areas are not familiar with the power of storms, and others may have become inured to warnings by the sometime fortune that has seen large hurricanes steer away from landfall near local coasts. Construction in flood prone and potential storm surge areas and barrier islands continues at a fast pace along the coast. New communities are being built in these counties. Refugees from these areas will end up in Leon County shelters and require assistance from Leon Emergency Management.
Interior Counties Are Not Safe
The recent lesson of Hurricane Dennis, which saw flood destruction in St. Marks, should provide a warning that even near misses can be dangerous. Interior counties, such as Leon County, are not safe. High winds, rain, and swollen rivers and streams can cause serious flooding and death. As a case in point, in 2005 Hurricane Wilma caused extensive damage over the southern peninsula as it devastated rural communities after landfall, even surprising residents of Miami with its power after it crossed the state. (Interview with Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center).
During Hurricane Katrina, criticisms of the government agencies included lack of preparedness to deal with calamities of major proportion including confusion and lack of communication among government officials as to who was supposed to do what. The city’s main newspaper, its building flooded, could publish only through a website. All but one broadcast television outlet in New Orleans were silenced by the floods which ruined transmitters according to Bob Breck, weather forecaster, Fox 8, New Orleans, speaking at AMS.
The city was plunged into darkness and confusion.
As everyone knows, officials in New Orleans had evidence that such a hurricane would cause catastrophic damage and loss of life. Warnings were consistently made by local media, and even nationally in such publications as National Geographic. The New Orleans Times Picayune newspaper forecast the damage that would occur. New Orleans residents were used to being warned.
Even with a record evacuation in New Orleans in which it is said that 80-90 percent of residents left their homes -- an unusually successful effort according to experts at the AMS Conference -- the resulting death and destruction in Louisiana and Mississippi staggered the imagination. While the damages were caused by breaks in the water containment systems, the city of New Orleans did avoid the dangerous right front quadrant of the storm. Longtime New Orleans TV forecaster Bob Breck warned in a panel discussion at the AMS meeting that the big storm is still coming and “will come.”
Why Do People Ignore Warnings?
The puzzle continues as to why people would ignore or put aside disaster warnings. Currently, sociologists are studying in various ways the behaviors of people facing imminent dangers to life and property. This includes an area of the social sciences called “risk communication.” The public feels the presence of preparedness only when the preparedness fails, according to Dr. Shirley Laska, sociology professor and director of the Center for Hazards Assessment, Response and Technology at the University of New Orleans.
Preparedness requires that there be a constant assessment of risk in the society and the construction of organizations and behaviors that support its reduction and its response when it cannot be reduced. It is an extremely difficult challenge not to slide back to how things were done before the disaster (Dr. Laska, speaking at AMS)
To engage as many people as possible, off-season activities are widespread. Activities and campaigns are promoted by local emergency management offices, the National Weather Service, other government agencies, the media, non-profits and sometimes private commercial entities seek to educate both the public and private sectors about the need to learn about and the steps to take to prepare for disaster emergencies.
Florida A&M University Study
A scientific study of Leon County residents by a graduate research team at Florida A&M University shows wide disparities among residents in their belief that Leon County and Tallahassee would be able to withstand a major hurricane. These disparities are based on race, age, economic and educational levels, and show that the community, as a whole, says it does not feel prepared to weather a major hurricane.
A total of 377 residents of Leon County were selected as a systematic random sample from the latest telephone directory, with provisions made to add numbers to each ten numbers selected to account for unlisted phone numbers. This scientific polling method mathematically produces a five percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 out of 100 times, such a survey of Leon County residents would be within plus or minus five percentage points of the answers on the questions. A question answered at 55 percent “yes” for example could actually range between 50 and 60 percent. The survey is a representative sample of all Tallahassee and Leon County residents.
This report is based upon answers to a series of questions. Charts are located at the end of the report.
•Residents were asked whether they thought Tallahassee was adequately prepared to face a major hurricane.
Only 24.1 percent said they thought the city was adequately prepared, 54 percent said it wasn’t, and 21.9 percent said they did not know.
Racial and economic conditions affect preparedness. Black residents feel significantly less prepared, 66 percent compared to 52 percent of white residents.
Some 72 percent of residents whose income was $25,000 or less said that the Tallahassee was unprepared for a hurricane. Half of those with income of $100,000 or more view Tallahassee as unprepared.
•Residents were asked, “Does your family have an emergency hurricane plan?” All families should have an emergency hurricane plan according to national and local emergency officials. This is stressed by NOAA officials and has become a mantra of emergency preparedness officials throughout the coastal areas of the United States.
Response was that 55.4 percent of residents said they have such a plan, but 42.2 percent said they did not.
Racial Differences Emerge from Study
Racial differences emerged again, as 42 percent of black residents said they had such a plan, while 61 percent of white residents said they had a plan.
Based on age, residents ranging from 18-35 and 61 and older are less likely to have emergency hurricane plan than those of ages 36-60.
Based on income, residents who earn less than $25,000 dollars a year are less likely to have an emergency hurricane plan.
Seventy-one percent of residents who did not pursue higher education are less likely to have an emergency hurricane plan.
• Question: “Do you know where your nearest public emergency shelter is?”
Response was 47. 5 percent said they did, 45. 9 percent said they didn’t. Another 6.1 percent were unsure. This question reflected equally across race. Some 62 percent of those persons in the income category of $100,000 or more said that they knew where their shelters are. All other categories were less than 50 percent.
Need for More Radios
• Question: “Does your family have a battery-operated radio that gets the national weather frequencies or a special weather alert radio?” Weather officials strongly advocate weather alert radios of the type that automatically carry messages.
Responses were that 69.2 percent of residents said they did own such radios, 30.2 percent said they didn’t. A total of 72 percent of white residents and 63 percent of black residents said they owned radios.
• Question: “Is your radio a weather radio that gets other stations; a special weather alert radio, or another kind of device?”
Of 251 people who chose to answer, response was that 39.5 percent had an all-purpose radio, 12.2 percent had a recommended weather alert radio, 7.4 percent had another type and 7.4 percent said they did not know.
Only 21 percent of whites and 10 percent of blacks who had radios said they had a special weather alert radio, the kind of which is recommended by weather officials. Missing answers on these questions lead to the conclusion that the statistics of those who have special radios are far less than reported.
Fears of Damage
The concerns of residents, aside from loss of life in storms, included winds, windblown objects, and trees falling. These were concerns of 60 percent of residents. Some 7.2 percent were concerned about flooding, 6.8 percent about finding a place to stay outside of Tallahassee, 6.5 percent by loss of income, and about 4 percent of residents were concerned about lack of insurance to cover damages.
Fears of damage to structures by winds, windblown objects, and by trees are real, considering the neighborhoods in our area. The large numbers of large trees in residential yards was discussed with both emergency management officials in Leon County and discussed with Max Mayfield of the Tropical Hurricane Center in Miami.
While trees create beautiful scenery and give Tallahassee much of its local color, trees crashing down into homes or over power lines represent a danger during hurricane season. Lives may be lost as trees come down into homes and even onto cars. Roads are blocked. Downing of power lines by trees does not require high hurricane force winds, according to Mayfield, who pointed to Hurricane Isabel in 2003 where Category 2 force winds (85-90 knot) left several million people without electricity in North Carolina, Virginia and states north. Mayfield, who has relatives nearby and has visited and “loves Tallahassee,” agreed that the trees would be a major problem here, as they were in Hurricane Kate.
Emergency management officials in Leon County as well as Mayfield were hesitant to suggest that government enact a program to cut trees. While trees might be a valuable resource to lumber companies, liability issues in cutting trees would serve to create problems for such an enterprise, according to Richard Smith, the emergency management director in Leon County. Mayfield said that people do not want the government to come in and cut trees down. However, it may be said that some kind of effort is necessary here.
Analysis: Residents Are Unprepared
A study of the statistics from this report shows a perception of the lack of hurricane preparedness by Tallahassee and Leon County residents. A good many people simply do not have a hurricane plan. It is possible that the perception of lack of preparedness in Tallahassee reflects a lack of confidence in the emergency system. Racial disparity also exists in the data, meaning that minority residents are less likely to feel confident of what measures to take.
While emergency management officials and staff in Leon County are active in promoting hurricane awareness, along with NOAA and its National Weather Service office here, the school system, and community and state agencies such as with Hurricane Awareness week beginning Feb. 13, 2006, the profile of these activities may not be reaching segments of the community.
The entire Leon County budget for emergency management for fiscal year 2006 is $244,910 according to the Leon County, out of a $53,776,000 sheriff’s budget. While the budget handles most costs, the budget for production of hurricane informational materials, for instance, within the Leon County Emergency Management, is less than adequate.
Leon County also suffers from the low visibility of its Emergency Management offices. Sequestered in the Leon County Jail building the whereabouts of this office may be a mystery to many Leon County residents. Other counties are embarking or have embarked upon expansion of emergency facilities. Leon County, however efficient in its use of taxpayer dollars, does not proclaim the presence of Emergency Management to the community in this way. There are no classroom or auditorium facilities attached to the building that would enable it to function as a center for educating the citizens of this area. Parking is limited.
Six Recommendations: First, A New Emergency Center
These recommendations are the responsibility of the author, alone, after consultation with graduate students the federal grant committee mentioned below.
1) Emergency Management was placed under the Leon County Sheriff’s Office on May 1, 1999. It may be time to consider making this agency a separate county agency with funding of its own.
Plans should be developed to house Leon County Emergency Management Services in a modern structure with state-of-the-art equipment that will reflect its importance to the community and will give it visibility to the community at large. The Emergency Management Services which shares the Leon County Jail facility now must borrow classroom and auditorium space, which is sometimes difficult to obtain.
A new Emergency Management Center will result in greatly enhanced community awareness. The current Leon County Jail building is less than adequate to conduct of this public enterprise. Its main function is to house more than 1,000 inmates and 300 enforcement personnel, as well as handle hundreds of visitors and vendors each week. If they can find parking, visitors to Emergency Services must be ushered through a locked safe room with mechanical doors, which can be unnerving. The atmosphere is intimidating. Two employees have left because of the location.
Space, as mentioned, is limited in rooms where important meetings must be held.
A new building should include an auditorium, auxiliary space for volunteer workers, space for the Red Cross, and classrooms for the community. Budget increases over the approximately $250,000 now invested yearly in this program must be made. Local officials should seek further monies from legislative emergency funding, the governor and other sources to begin this process. It may be that large property areas out of the flood zone could be considered to house emergency services. The Leon Fairgrounds could be one alternative, Innovation Park another.
Media Plan, Risk Communication
2) The county and city should work together on a media plan using all forms of communication to insure that residents are aware of emergency procedures. It is suggested that government use the full extent of its outreach as well as contract with private and public agencies to develop a comprehensive advertising and media plan to heighten awareness of the county’s emergency hurricane plan. While some of this is happening with consultants to Emergency Management under a grant, working as a unit can generate more awareness with the university community and with private firms willing to give of their time. Town and gown should come together in this enterprise. Recent production of a hurricane video by the Ron Sachs agency is an example of private enterprise using its expertise to help the public in this area.
3) Officials should contract to conduct a serious study on how risk communication in Leon County can be more effective, and then put the findings into better communication in getting residents to create a hurricane plan for individuals and families. A study should be made of attitude change and risk awareness among differing populations, including the growing Hispanic population in Leon and nearby counties. In addition to the usual survey methods, in-depth, open-ended panel studies and qualitative methodologies can determine how residents think about storm emergencies and how best to reach them with information. Proposals should be entertained for such study or studies from communication departments of the local universities. Using the results of these studies, best methods of reaching all peoples can be established.
Tree Removal Should Be A Priority
4) The real dangers of large trees and trees near power lines should be readdressed. Homeowners who want trees removed should receive financial incentive from the public and the private sector, particularly if those trees endanger property or lives. The structural damage that can be caused by falling trees needs to be taken into account in Leon County as a measure of safety to the population. While Emergency Management has addressed some problems through mitigation funding working with the Red Cross, the program is small. Tens of thousands of large pine and oak trees looming over power lines electricity in Leon County along rights of way portend weeks of power outage. This factor along with winds and lightning will deprive residents of access to a safe water supply, refrigeration, and regular and cell phone service. Fallen trees and limbs will make access by emergency vehicles difficult. Little or no gasoline may be available for those who own generators. The ubiquitous car cell phone chargers are inoperable if there is no gasoline to spare to run cars to charge them.
5) Every family should be able to afford an emergency alert weather radio. These radios retail at less than $50 and should be made available at discount prices to city utilities customers and to the general public. Emergency management currently distributes about 200 radios annually, and they are present at all public and private schools. The distribution of weather alert radios should be more widespread.
Minorities Should Be Brought Into the Discussion
6) Minorities need to be brought into the circle in areas concerning hurricane awareness. More effort should be made to bring awareness to the minority communities should begin by bringing leaders together to discuss involvement of various groups of people in emergency planning. While the survey had too few Hispanic respondents, the number of workers in Gadsden and other counties mandates that a Hispanic presence also be involved. Disasters do not happen in one county, alone. While the Emergency Management Services is doing some of this, outreach needs to be expanded through the churches and other organizations. The experience with Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans has made some wonder whether officials are addressing their problems. The survey showed that lower income residents have less trust in current hurricane preparedness.
Addendum:
This survey upon which this report is based is a scientific survey of Leon County residents conducted by students in a graduate journalism class in Research Methods at Florida A&M University in the fall of 2005. The survey was conducted using phone facilities contributed by The Tallahassee Democrat. The graduate class consisted of Melissa Jackson, Sandra Allen and Trenton Davis. More than 50 undergraduate students participated.
Information was also obtained in the process of fulfilling a grant entitled Florida A&M University Transportation Safety Center FTA Grant for analysis of Florida Storm Warning Emergency Preparedness. The committee chair is Prof. K. Wilder, and members include students Lakeitha Grey, Karen Porter and Simone Thompson. Also on the committee are Kim Godwin, assistant vice-president of news for WCBS in New York and Dr. Abrams. Interviews have been conducted with a variety of state and local officials involved in emergency hurricane preparedness, experts in meteorology, and representatives of the media.