GOP top candidates in Florida will have to overcome the deficits of age

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January 23, 2012

We think age will play a role in the Florida primary, and the advertising will go a long way into making this a tough presidential test. With age comes wisdom, but there are also some crippling deficiencies that age can bring to the presidency.

Dr. Gingrich, who may be leading the polls in Florida at this time, would reach 70 years of age the first year of his presidency. George Romney would be 66 the first year of his presidency, one of the older presidents to take office. Dr. Ron Paul would be 77.

The oldest president we’ve had was Reagan who was 69 years, 349 days when he assumed the presidency. Reagan apparently had the genes that gave him the kind of additional energy he needed to survive, although some wags would say he did get some needed sleep at cabinet meetings.

Newt would be 69 and 217 days at inauguration on Jan. 20, 2013, making him the second oldest president. He looks a little pudgy to us and somehow just doesn’t seem at first glance to be in the kind of physical shape that perhaps Americans have come to expect of a president. Romney appears to be the more athletic of the two, but we haven’t seen either out on the tennis courts.

We’re not writing about him yet, but Barrack Obama would be a young pup of 51 years the first year of a second term.

If Gingrich or Romney are preferred by Republican voters, the selection of a vice-presidential candidate is of extreme importance. Balance is going to be required, and the winner is going to have to be able to be free enough of party fetters to choose someone who can broaden the appeal beyond the conservative base of the party. He will have to choose someone who can actually appeal to the Democratic voters. Old must be balanced with young.

The advertising pinch

When Florida’s registered Republican voters go to the polls on Jan. 31 for the presidential preference primary, they will have survived a deluge of advertising that will probably make the leading candidates entirely unappetizing to voters, no matter what their age. People are already turned off by what seems to be a peculiar wish by each candidate to muddy the waters so much that no one will survive for the coming election.

This is actually why the also-rans in the New Hampshire election - Rick Santorum and Ron Paul will capture a good share of votes. Given that there are four million voters in the party, and about 40 percent of them or 1.6 million are likely to turn out, we forecast a vote of about 560,000 for Romney, about 440,000 for Gingrich (when the political saboteurs are finished with him) and about 250,000 for Ron Paul and about the same for Santorum.

A recent poll calling itself the “Insider-Advantage” poll with 557 Republican voters polled, gives Gingrich a 34 to 26 percent lead over Romney, according to a website called “The Hill.” The report of a four percent margin of error actually means that the two could be tied at 30-30, given the mathematics.

It’s going to be an interesting primary and a tough election.

No matter how money the candidates spend, or how much corporate money flows into the advertising coffers, the state of the economy remains the most telling variable.